Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is highly underdiagnosed, and early detection is urgent to prevent advanced progression. Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) have been diagnostic candidates for multiple diseases. However, their diagnostic value has not yet been fully established in COPD. The purpose of this study was to develop an effective model for the diagnosis of COPD based on circulating miRNAs. We included circulating miRNA expression profiles of two independent cohorts consisting of 63 COPD and 110 normal samples, and then we constructed a miRNA pair-based matrix. Diagnostic models were developed using several machine learning algorithms. The predictive performance of the optimal model was validated in our external cohort. In this study, the diagnostic values of miRNAs based on the expression levels were unsatisfactory. We identified five key miRNA pairs and further developed seven machine learning models. The classifier based on LightGBM was selected as the final model with the area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.883 and 0.794 in test and validation datasets, respectively. We also built a web tool to assist diagnosis for clinicians. Enriched signaling pathways indicated the potential biological functions of the model. Collectively, we developed a robust machine learning model based on circulating miRNAs for COPD screening.
Keywords: COPD; diagnostic model; machine learning; miRNA.