The COVID-19 pandemic has presented a unique challenge for physicians worldwide, as they grapple with limited data and uncertainty in diagnosing and predicting disease outcomes. In such dire circumstances, the need for innovative methods that can aid in making informed decisions with limited data is more critical than ever before. To allow prediction with limited COVID-19 data as a case study, we present a complete framework for progression and prognosis prediction in chest X-rays (CXR) through reasoning in a COVID-specific deep feature space. The proposed approach relies on a pre-trained deep learning model that has been fine-tuned specifically for COVID-19 CXRs to identify infection-sensitive features from chest radiographs. Using a neuronal attention-based mechanism, the proposed method determines dominant neural activations that lead to a feature subspace where neurons are more sensitive to COVID-related abnormalities. This process allows the input CXRs to be projected into a high-dimensional feature space where age and clinical attributes like comorbidities are associated with each CXR. The proposed method can accurately retrieve relevant cases from electronic health records (EHRs) using visual similarity, age group, and comorbidity similarities. These cases are then analyzed to gather evidence for reasoning, including diagnosis and treatment. By using a two-stage reasoning process based on the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence, the proposed method can accurately predict the severity, progression, and prognosis of a COVID-19 patient when sufficient evidence is available. Experimental results on two large datasets show that the proposed method achieves 88% precision, 79% recall, and 83.7% F-score on the test sets.
Keywords: COVID-19; case retrieval; deep feature space reasoning; patient demographics; prognosis prediction.