Introduction: In Japan, evacuation at home is expected to increase in the future as a post-disaster evacuation type due to the pandemic, aging, and diverse disabilities of the population. However, more disaster-related indirect deaths occurred in homes than in evacuation centers after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE). The health risks faced by evacuees at home have not been adequately discussed.
Study objective: This study aimed to clarify the gap in disaster health management for evacuees at home compared to the evacuees at the evacuation centers in Minamisanriku Town, which lost all health care facilities after the 2011 GEJE.
Methods: This was a retrospective cross-sectional and quasi-experimental study based on the anonymized disaster medical records (DMRs) of patients from March 11 through April 10, 2011, that compared the evacuation-at-home and evacuation-center groups focusing on the day of the first medical intervention after the onset. Multivariable Cox regression analysis and propensity score (PS)-matching analysis were performed to identify the risk factors and causal relationship between the evacuation type and the delay of medical intervention.
Results: Of the 2,838 eligible patients, 460 and 2,378 were in the evacuation-at-home and evacuation-center groups, respectively. In the month after the onset, the evacuation-at-home group had significantly lower rates of respiratory and mental health diseases than the evacuation-center group. However, the mean time to the first medical intervention was significantly delayed in the evacuation-at-home group (19.3 [SD = 6.1] days) compared to that in the evacuation-center group (14.1 [SD = 6.3] days); P <.001). In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the hazard ratio (HR) of delayed medical intervention for evacuation-at-home was 2.31 with a 95% confident interval of 2.07-2.59. The PS-matching analysis of the adjusted 459 patients in each group confirmed that evacuation at home was significantly associated with delays in the first medical intervention (P <.001).
Conclusion: This study suggested, for the first time, the causal relationship between evacuation at home and delay in the first medical intervention by PS-matching analysis. Although evacuation at home had several advantages in reducing the frequencies of some diseases, the delay in medical intervention could exacerbate the symptoms and be a cause of indirect death. As more evacuees are likely to remain in their homes in the future, this study recommends earlier surveillance and health care provision to the home evacuees.
Keywords: disaster health management; disaster-related indirect death; evacuation at home; evacuation center; health resilience.