A nomogram to optimize the timing of antenatal corticosteroids in threatened preterm delivery

Abstract

Background: Recent observational studies reported a high rate of suboptimal use of antenatal corticosteroids (too anticipated or retrospectively not indicated) for women at risk of preterm delivery despite a recommended use within 7 days before delivery.

Objective: This study aimed to elaborate a nomogram aiming at optimizing the timing of administration of antenatal corticosteroids in case of threatened preterm labor, asymptomatic short cervix, or uterine contractions.

Study design: This was an observational retrospective study conducted in a tertiary hospital. All women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation who received corticosteroids during hospitalization for threatened preterm delivery, asymptomatic short cervix, or uterine contractions requiring tocolysis between 2015 and 2019 were included. Clinical, biological, and sonographic data of women were used to construct logistic regression models for predicting delivery within 7 days. The model was validated on an independent series of women hospitalized in 2020.

Results: Among the 1343 women included in this study, the risk factors independently associated with a delivery within 7 days in multivariate analysis were vaginal bleeding (odds ratio, 14.47; 95% confidence interval, 7.81-26.81; P<.001); need for a second-line tocolysis, such as atosiban (odds ratio, 5.66; 95% confidence interval, 3.39-9.45; P<.001); C-reactive protein level (per 1 mg/L increase; odds ratio, 1.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.04; P<.001); cervical length (per 1 mm increase; odds ratio, 0.84; 95% confidence interval, 0.82-0.87; P<.001); uterine scar (odds ratio, 2.98; 95% confidence interval, 1.33-6.65; P=.008), and gestational age at admission (per week of amenorrhea increase; odds ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.20; P=.041). Based on these results, a nomogram was developed that, in retrospect, would have allowed physicians to avoid or delay antenatal corticosteroids in 57% of cases in our population. The discrimination of the predictive model was good when applied to the validation set of 232 women hospitalized in 2020. It would have enabled physicians to avoid or delay antenatal corticosteroids in 52% of cases.

Conclusion: This study developed a simple use, accurate prognostic score to identify women at risk of delivery within 7 days in cases of threatened preterm delivery, asymptomatic short cervix, or uterine contractions and thereby optimized the use of antenatal corticosteroids.

Keywords: antenatal corticosteroid; nomogram; threatened preterm delivery.