Quantitative prediction of potential areas likely to yield Se-rich and Cd-low rice using fuzzy weights-of-evidence method

Abstract

The research of high-quality agricultural products rich in selenium and low in cadmium (Se-rich and Cd-low, respectively) is related directly to the value of agricultural products and people's food safety. Now it is still challenging to carry out development planning for Se-rich rice. By fuzzy weights-of-evidence method, the geochemical soil survey data of Se and Cd from 27,833 surface soil samples and 804 rice samples was used to predict the probability of areas, in Hubei Province, China, that will likely yield (a) Se-rich and Cd-low rice, (b) Se-rich and Cd-normal rice and (c) Se-rich and Cd-high rice. The areas predicted to likely yield Se-rich and Cd-high rice, Se-rich and Cd-normal rice, and high quality (i.e., Se-rich and Cd-low) rice cover 6542.3 km² (5.9 %), 35,845.9 km² (32.6 %), 12,379.7 km² (11.3 %), respectively, of the surveyed region. According to the predictive distribution probability mapping of Se and Cd, this paper gives preliminary suggestions on the use of endogenous and exogenous Se, and Cd-reduction measures in planting Se-rich rice in different regions of Hubei Province. This study provides a new perspective for rational rice planting of Se-rich agricultural products, and it lays a foundation for the effective implementation of a geochemical soil investigation engineering project, which is of great significance for improving the economic value of Se-rich agricultural products and sustainable utilization of Se land resources.

Keywords: Agricultural planning; Fuzzy weights-of-evidence method; Geochemical soil survey engineering; Quantitative prediction; Se-rich and Cd-low rice.