Background: Exposure to air pollution is an important risk factor for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), which is a major cause of death worldwide. However, the relationship between ICH mortality and air quality improvement has been poorly studied. This study aims to evaluate the impact of the air pollution control policies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region on ICH mortality among Tianjin residents.
Methods: This study used an interrupted time series analysis. We fitted autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to assess the changes in ICH deaths before and after the interventions of air pollution control policies based on the data of ICH deaths in Tianjin collected by the Tianjin Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Results: Between 2009 and 2020, there were 63,944 ICH deaths in Tianjin, and there was an overall decreasing trend in ICH mortality. The intervention conducted in June 2014 resulted in a statistically significant (p = 0.03) long-term trend change, reducing the number of deaths from ICH by 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI]: -1.30 to -0.07) per month. The intervention in October 2017 resulted in a statistically significant (p = 0.04) immediate decrease of 25.74 (95% CI: -50.62 to -0.85) deaths from ICH in that month. The intervention in December 2017 caused a statistically significant (p = 0.04) immediate reduction of 26.58 (95% CI: -52.02 to -1.14) deaths from ICH in that month. The intervention in March 2018 resulted in a statistically significant (p = 0.02) immediate decrease of 30.40 (95% CI: -56.41 to -4.40) deaths from ICH in that month. No significant differences were observed in the changes of male ICH mortality after any of the four interventions. However, female ICH deaths showed statistically significant long-term trend change after the intervention in June 2014 and immediate changes after the interventions in December 2017 and March 2018. Overall, the interventions prevented an estimated 5984.76 deaths due to ICH.
Conclusion: During the study period, some interventions of air pollution control policies were significantly associated with the reductions in the number of deaths from ICH among residents in Tianjin. ICH survivors and females were more sensitive to the protective effects of the interventions. Interventions for air pollution control can achieve public health gains in cities with high levels of air pollution.
Keywords: Air pollution; Autoregressive integrated moving average models; Interrupted time series analysis; Intracerebral hemorrhage; Policy evaluation.
© 2023. The Author(s).