Evaluation of three scoring systems for predicting renal prognosis in antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated glomerulonephritis

Abstract

Background: Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN) is characterized by rapidly progressive glomerulonephritis, and timely initiation of treatment and evaluation is critical to prevent the progression of renal disease to end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim of this study was to evaluate predictive value of the renal risk score (RRS), Birmingham vasculitis activity score (BVAS), and renal vascular lesions (RVLs) score for renal prognosis in AAGN.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of ninety-four patients diagnosed with AAGN after renal biopsy was performed. The RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score were evaluated in relation to clinicopathologic features and renal prognosis. A receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate their renal prognostic value.

Results: The median follow-up time was 36 months. Thirty-eight patients progressed to ESRD. Survival analysis showed that renal prognosis worsened in the RRS group in order of low, medium, and high RRS (P < 0.05). Within the RVLs group, the renal prognosis of the groups with severe and moderate RVLs was worse than that of the group without RVLs (P = 0.012, P < 0.001), and the group with mild RVLs was close to that of the group without RVLs. ROC analysis showed that the AUC of RRS, BVAS, RVLs score, RVLs score combined with RRS (RVLs score & RRS, RR), RVLs score, and RRS combined with BVAS (RVLs score & RRS & BVAS, RRB) were 0.865, 0.624, 0.763, 0.910, and 0.942, respectively. The predictive power of RRB and RR was comparable and significantly better than the RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score. Based on simplicity and validity, RR was selected as the best predictor, and the relationship between RRS, RVLs score, and RR was calculated using a linear fit, resulting in the linear equation RR = -0.4766 + 0.1231 × RVLs score + 0.395 × RRS (P < 0.001).

Conclusions: In AAGN, the predictive power of RR for renal prognosis was superior to that of RRS, BVAS, and RVLs score. RR may serve as a new predictor of renal prognosis in AAGN.

Keywords: Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated glomerulonephritis; Birmingham vasculitis activity score; Renal prognosis; Renal risk score; Renal vascular lesions score.