This paper investigated whether rainfall promotes dilution or increase in nutrient concentrations and which land use indicators are the main predictors of nutrients in intermittent rivers in a large Brazilian semiarid region. The total phosphorus (TP) and total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) were monitored between 2013 and 2018 at 92 river water quality monitoring sites. The monthly rainfall (Rn) was obtained from 575 rain gauges. Pearson's correlation (R) between Rn and nutrient concentration was performed. The correlation patterns were also analysed based on land use data: urban area (%), agricultural field area (%), demographic density (inhabitants/km2), sewer system coverage (%), and reservoir density (reservoir/km2). Backward stepwise regression was performed to identify predictors of nutrient concentrations. The results revealed a marginal effect of rainfall on nutrients when the effects of urbanisation outweigh all other aspects. However, in regions with greater accumulated rainfall and lower reservoir density, the rainfall was related to a linear increase in nutrient concentrations (R > 0.8). Contrastingly, in the basins with less accumulated rainfall and greater inter-basin hydrological disconnection, there was a linear reduction in nutrient concentration (R < - 0.5). In the backward stepwise regression, sewer system coverage and Rn had the greatest influence for TP, and the urban area was the strongest predictor for TIN. Importantly, our results demonstrated that in semiarid rivers in densely populated regions, there is no single pattern of variability in nutrient concentration, on a wide scale of assessment. Therefore, adaptative and decentralised management can be more effective in improving water quality in these regions.
Keywords: Backward stepwise regression; Intermittent rivers; Nitrogen; Pearson’s correlation; Phosphorus; Sources of pollution; Water quality monitoring.
© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.