Hierarchical Bayesian narrative-making under variable uncertainty

Behav Brain Sci. 2023 May 8:46:e97. doi: 10.1017/S0140525X22002643.

Abstract

While Conviction Narrative Theory correctly criticizes utility-based accounts of decision-making, it unfairly reduces probabilistic models to point estimates and treats affect and narrative as mechanistically opaque yet explanatorily sufficient modules. Hierarchically nested Bayesian accounts offer a mechanistically explicit and parsimonious alternative incorporating affect into a single biologically plausible precision-weighted mechanism that tunes decision-making toward narrative versus sensory dependence under varying uncertainty levels.

Publication types

  • Comment

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Decision Making*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Uncertainty