Implications of taxonomic misidentification for future invasion predictions: Evidence from one of the most harmful invasive marine algae

Abstract

Invasive species have been a focus of concern in recent decades, becoming more problematic due to the cumulative impacts of climate change. Understanding the interactions among stress factors is essential to anticipate ecosystems' responses. Hereby, robust modeling frameworks must be able to identify the environmental drivers of invasion and forecast the current and future of their potential distribution. These studies are essential for the management of invasions and to be prepared for the future we are facing. Here we demonstrate that taxonomic misidentifications may lead to absolutely erroneous predictions, by using as an example one of the worst invasive species in the Mediterranean Sea (Lophocladia lallemandii), which has been misidentified for three decades and now is correctly identified. Consequently, and bearing in mind overall trends in species misidentification due to the loss of taxonomic expertise and the presence of cryptic species, among others, attempts to understand and predict species involved in invasion processes must always first consider taxonomic studies.

Keywords: Climate change; Invasive species; Niche modeling; Species distribution.