Trends in mortality outcomes of hospital-admitted injury in Victoria, Australia 2001-2021

Abstract

Due to advancements in trauma treatment methods, it is expected that survivability of hospital-admitted injuries gradually improves over time. However, measurement of trends in all-cause injury survivability is complicated by changes in case mix, demographics and hospital admission policy. The aim of this study is to determine trends in hospital-admitted injury survivability in Victoria, Australia, taking case-mix and patient demographics into account, and to explore the potential impact of changes in hospital admission practices. Injury admission records (ICD-10-AM codes S00-T75 and T79) between 1 July 2001 and 30 June 2021 were extracted from the Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset. ICD-based Injury Severity Score (ICISS) calculated from Survival Risk Ratios for Victoria was used as an injury severity measure. Death-in-hospital was modelled as a function of financial year, adjusting for age group, sex and ICISS, as well as admission type and length of stay. There were 19,064 in-hospital deaths recorded in 2,362,991 injury-related hospital admissions in 2001/02-2020/21. Rates of in-hospital death decreased from 1.00% (866/86,998) in 2001/02 to 0.72% (1115/154,009) in 2020/21. ICISS was a good predictor of in-hospital death with an area-under-the-curve of 0.91. In-hospital death was associated with financial year (Odds Ratio 0.950 [95%CI 0.947, 0.952]), in logistic regression modelling adjusted for ICISS, age and sex. In stratified modelling, decreasing injury death trends were observed in each of the top 10 injury diagnoses (together constituting > 50% of cases). Admission type and length of stay were added to the model: these did not alter the effect of year on in-hospital death. In conclusion, a 28% reduction in rates of in-hospital deaths in Victoria was observed over the 20-year study period, in spite of aging of the injured population. This amounts to 1222 additional lives saved in 2020/21 alone. Survival Risk Ratios therefore change markedly over time. A better understanding of the drivers of positive change will help to further reduce the injury burden in Victoria.