Background: For Black men of middle-age, the overdose mortality statistics are increasingly dire. To better understand the severity of the crisis, we estimated the cumulative risk of drug overdose deaths among non-Hispanic Black men in mid-life using a period life table approach. We report the chances of Black men aged 45 years dying of a drug overdose before age 60.
Methods: A period life table reflects what would happen to a hypothetical cohort if it experienced the prevailing age-specific probabilities of death. In our hypothetical cohort, we followed 100,000 non-Hispanic Black men aged 45 years for 15 years. All-cause death probabilities were obtained from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) 2021 life table series. Overdose mortality rates were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System through the Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC WONDER) database. We also constructed a period life table for a comparison group of White men.
Results: The life table shows that, for Black men who are 45 years of age in the United States, 1 in 52 (nearly 2%) is expected to die of drug overdose before reaching age 60, if current mortality rates persist. For White men, the estimate is 1 in 91 men (about 1%). The life table also shows that from age 45 to 59 years, the number of overdose deaths increased in the cohort of Black men but decreased in White men.
Conclusions: This study extends our understanding of the immense loss to Black communities from the preventable drug deaths of Black men in middle-age.
Keywords: Black men; Cumulative risk; Drug overdose; Life table; Middle-age; White men.
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