Climate warming poses challenges for food production at low latitudes, particularly in arid regions. Sudan, where wheat demand could triple by 2050, has the world's hottest wheat-growing environments, and observed yield declines in hot seasons are prompting the national government to prepare for a warming of 1.5-4.2 °C. Using advanced crop modelling under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios, we show that despite the use of adjusted sowing dates and existing heat-tolerant varieties, by 2050, Sudan's domestic production share may decrease from 16.0% to 4.5-12.2%. In the relatively cool northern region, yields will need to increase by 3.1-4.7% per year, at non-compounding rates, to meet demand. In the hot central and eastern regions, improvements in heat tolerance are essential, and yields must increase by 0.2-2.7% per year to keep pace with climate warming. These results indicate the potential contribution of climate change adaptation measures and provide targets for addressing the wheat supply challenge.
© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.