Urbanization can benefit agricultural production with large-scale farming in China

Sitong Wang; Xuemei Bai; Xiaoling Zhang; Stefan Reis; Deli Chen; Jianming Xu; Baojing Gu

doi:10.1038/s43016-021-00228-6

Urbanization can benefit agricultural production with large-scale farming in China

Nat Food. 2021 Mar;2(3):183-191. doi: 10.1038/s43016-021-00228-6. Epub 2021 Mar 11.

Authors

Sitong Wang^#^{1

2}, Xuemei Bai^#³, Xiaoling Zhang^#^{4

5}, Stefan Reis^{6

7}, Deli Chen⁸, Jianming Xu^{1

9}, Baojing Gu^{10

11}

Affiliations

¹ College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China.
² Policy Simulation Laboratory, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China.
³ Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
⁴ Department of Public Policy, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People's Republic of China.
⁵ Shenzhen Research Institute, City University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen, People's Republic of China.
⁶ UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Penicuik, UK.
⁷ European Centre for Environment and Human Health, University of Exeter Medical School, Truro, UK.
⁸ School of Agriculture and Food, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
⁹ Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China.
¹⁰ College of Environmental and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China. bjgu@zju.edu.cn.
¹¹ Zhejiang Provincial Key Laboratory of Agricultural Resources and Environment, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China. bjgu@zju.edu.cn.

^# Contributed equally.

PMID: 37117442
DOI: 10.1038/s43016-021-00228-6

Abstract

Urbanization has often been considered a threat to food security since it is likely to reduce the availability of croplands. Using spatial statistics and scenario analysis, we show that an increase in China's urbanization level from 56% in 2015 to 80% in 2050 would actually release 5.8 million hectares of rural land for agricultural production-equivalent to 4.1% of China's total cropland area in 2015. Even considering the relatively lower land fertility of these new croplands, crop production in 2050 would still be 3.1-4.2% higher than in 2015. In addition, cropland fragmentation could be reduced with rural land release and a decrease in rural population, benefiting large-scale farming and environmental protection. To ensure this, it is necessary to adopt an integrated urban-rural development model, with reclamation of lands previously used as residential lots. These insights into the urbanization and food security debate have important policy implications for global regions undergoing rapid urbanization.