Objective: To examine how individuals may learn headache trigger beliefs through sequential symbolic pairings of trigger candidates and headache attacks.
Background: Learning from experience may be a major source of information about headache triggers. Little is known about learning-based influences on the establishment of trigger beliefs.
Methods: This cross-sectional, observational study included N = 300 adults with headache who participated in a laboratory computer task. First, participants rated the chances (0%-100%) that encountering specific triggers would lead to experiencing a headache. Then, 30 sequential images with the presence or absence of a common headache trigger were presented alongside images representing the presence or absence of a headache attack. The primary outcome measure was the cumulative association strength rating (0 = no relationship to 10 = perfect relationship) between the trigger and headache using all previous trials.
Results: A total of N = 296 individuals completed 30 trials for each of three triggers, yielding 26,640 total trials for analysis. The median [25th, 75th] association strength ratings for each of the randomly presented headache triggers were 2.2 [0, 3] for the Color Green, 2.7 [0, 5] for Nuts, and 3.9 [0, 8] for Weather Changes. There was a strong association between the "true" cumulative association strength and corresponding ratings. A 1-point increase on the phi scale (i.e., no relationship to perfect relationship) was associated with a 1.20 (95% CI: 0.81 to 1.49, p < 0.0001) point increase in association strength rating. A participant's prior belief about the potency of a trigger affected their perceived rating of the accumulating evidence, accounting for 17% of the total variation.
Conclusion: In this laboratory task, individuals appeared to learn trigger-headache associations through repeated exposures to accumulating symbolic evidence. Prior beliefs about the triggers appeared to influence ratings of the strength of relationships between triggers and headache attacks.
Keywords: Bayesian; experimental; headache triggers; learning.
© 2023 American Headache Society.