An animal crisis caused by pollution, deforestation, and warming in the late 21st century and exacerbation by nuclear war

Abstract

An environmental-animal crisis is currently ongoing and is becoming increasingly severe due to human activity. However, the magnitude, timing, and processes related to this crisis are unclear. This paper clarifies the likely magnitude and timing of animal extinctions and changes in the contribution rates of select causes (global warming, pollution, deforestation, and two hypothetical nuclear conflicts) of animal extinctions during 2000-2300 CE. This paper demonstrates that an animal crisis marked by a 5-13% terrestrial tetrapod species loss and 2-6% marine animal species loss will occur in the next generation during 2060-2080 CE if humans do not engage in nuclear wars. These variations are due to magnitudes of pollution, deforestation, and global warming. The main causes of this crisis will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2030 under the low CO₂ emission scenarios but will change from pollution and deforestation to deforestation in 2070 and then to deforestation and global warming after 2090 under the medium CO₂ emissions. A nuclear conflict will increase animal species loss up to approximately 40-70% for terrestrial tetrapod species and 25-50% for marine animal species, including errors. Therefore, this study shows that the animal species conservation priority is to prevent nuclear war, reduce deforestation rates, decrease pollution, and limit global warming, in this order.

Keywords: Anthropocene; Deforestation; Global warming; Mass extinction; Nuclear war; Pollution.