Urban flood risk differentiation under land use scenario simulation

Hongbo Zhao; Tianshun Gu; Junqing Tang; Zhaoya Gong; Pengjun Zhao

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.106479

Urban flood risk differentiation under land use scenario simulation

iScience. 2023 Mar 23;26(4):106479. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106479. eCollection 2023 Apr 21.

Authors

Hongbo Zhao¹, Tianshun Gu¹, Junqing Tang², Zhaoya Gong², Pengjun Zhao²

Affiliations

¹ Key Research Institute of Yellow River Civilization and Sustainable Development & Collaborative Innovation Center on Yellow River Civilization Jointly Built by Henan Province and Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng 475001, China.
² School of Urban Planning and Design, Shenzhen Graduate School, Peking University, Shenzhen, China.

Abstract

The frequent urban floods have seriously affected the regional sustainable development in recent years. It is significant to understand the characteristics of urban flood risk and reasonably predict urban flood risk under different land use scenarios. This study used the random forest and multi-criteria decision analysis models to assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of flood risk in Zhengzhou City, China, from 2005 to 2020, and proposed a robust method coupling Bayesian network and patch-generating land use simulation models to predict future flood risk probability. We found that the flood risk in Zhengzhou City presented an upward trend from 2005 to 2020, and its spatial pattern was "high in the middle and low in the surrounding areas". In addition, land use patterns under the sustainable development scenario would be more conducive to reducing flood risk. Our results can provide theoretical support for scientifically optimizing land use to improve urban flood risk management.

Keywords: Hydrology; Land use; Risk assessment; Urban planning.