Effects of climate change on the distribution of Fusarium spp. in Italy

Abstract

This work studies the incidence of Fusarium spp. on wheat kernels about current and future climatic conditions in Italy. Epidemiological analyses were performed from 2007 to 2013 and the resulting dataset was used to find correlations between the disease incidence of five important Fusarium species monitored in Italy (Fusarium graminearum, F. langsethiae, F. sporotrichioides, F. poae and F. avenaceum) and climatic and geographical parameters. Probabilistic-based modelling of the actual distribution of Fusarium spp. was achieved by using the Zero-inflated Poisson regression. The probabilistic geographical distribution of the Fusarium species was assessed by applying future climatic scenarios (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). The shift from current to future climatic scenarios highlighted changes on a national and regional scale. The tightening of environmental conditions from the RCP4.5 to 8.5 scenarios resulted in a sporadic presence of F. avenaceum only in the northern region of Italy. Fusarium graminearum was plentifully present in the current climate, but the tightening of minimum and maximum temperatures and the decrease of precipitation between May-June in the RCP8.5 no longer represents the optimum conditions for it. Fusarium langsethiae was currently distributed in all of Italy, showing an increase in the probability of detecting it by moving from high to low latitudes and from low to high longitudes in the RCP8.5. Fusarium poae, unlike other Fusarium species, grows and develops in arid climatic conditions. High values of F. poae were recorded at low latitudes and longitudes. Under the RCP scenarios, it showed high incidence probabilities in the southeast and northeast areas of Italy. Fusarium sporotrichioides is scarcely present in Italy, found at high latitudes and in the central areas. Climate change altered this distribution, and the chances of discovering it increased significantly moving to southern Italy. Overall, the study shows that climate change conditions are likely to lead to an increase in the incidence of Fusarium species on wheat kernels in Italy, highlighting the importance of developing strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change on wheat production, quality, and safety.

Keywords: Assessment of mitigation strategies; Climate changes; Epidemiology; Fungal diseases; Random Forest; Wheat.