Background: Thyroid hormone replacement with levothyroxine (LT4) is a recommended treatment for patients undergoing thyroidectomy. The starting LT4 dose is frequently calculated based on the patient's weight. However, the weight-based LT4 dosing performs poorly in clinical practice, with only ∼30% of patients achieving target thyrotropin (TSH) levels at the first thyroid function testing after treatment initiation. A better way to calculate the LT4 dose for patients with postoperative hypothyroidism is needed. Methods: In this retrospective cohort study we used demographic, clinical, and laboratory data for 951 patients after thyroidectomy and several regression and classification machine learning methods to develop an LT4 dose calculator for treating postoperative hypothyroidism targeting the desired TSH level. We compared the accuracy with the current standard-of-care practice and other published algorithms and evaluated generalizability with fivefold cross-validation and out-of-sample testing. Results: The retrospective clinical chart review showed that only 285/951 (30%) patients met their postoperative TSH goal. Obese patients were overtreated with LT4. An ordinary least squares regression based on weight, height, age, sex, calcium supplementation, and height:sex interaction predicted prescribed LT4 dose in 43.5% of all patients and 45.3% of patients with normal postoperative TSH (0.45-4.5 mIU/L). The ordinal logistic regression, artificial neural networks regression/classification, and random forest methods achieved comparable performance. LT4 calculator recommended lower LT4 doses to obese patients. Conclusions: The standard-of-care LT4 dosing does not achieve the target TSH in most thyroidectomy patients. Computer-assisted LT4 dose calculation performs better by considering multiple relevant patient characteristics and providing personalized and equitable care to patients with postoperative hypothyroidism. Prospective validation of LT4 calculator performance in patients with various TSH goals is needed.
Keywords: levothyroxine; machine learning; postoperative hypothyroidism.