The chemical pathway for synthesizing covalent organic frameworks (COFs) involves a complex medley of reaction sequences over a rippling energy landscape that cannot be adequately described using existing theories. Even with the development of state-of-the-art experimental and computational tools, identifying primary mechanisms of nucleation and growth of COFs remains elusive. Other than empirically, little is known about how the catalyst composition and water activity affect the kinetics of the reaction pathway. Here, for the first time, we employ time-resolved in situ Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) coupled with a six-parameter microkinetic model consisting of ∼10 million reactions and over 20 000 species. The integrated approach elucidates previously unrecognized roles of catalyst pKa on COF yield and water on growth rate and size distribution. COF crystalline yield increases with decreasing pKa of the catalysts, whereas the effect of water is to reduce the growth rate of COF and broaden the size distribution. The microkinetic model reproduces the experimental data and quantitatively predicts the role of synthesis conditions such as temperature, catalyst, and precursor concentration on the nucleation and growth rates. Furthermore, the model also validates the second-order reaction mechanism of COF-5 and predicts the activation barriers for classical and non-classical growth of COF-5 crystals. The microkinetic model developed here is generalizable to different COFs and other multicomponent systems.