Can climate indices forecast daily variations of wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in East Asia?

Jaein I Jeong; Rokjin J Park

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163505

Can climate indices forecast daily variations of wintertime PM_2.5 concentrations in East Asia?

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jul 10:881:163505. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163505. Epub 2023 Apr 14.

Authors

Jaein I Jeong¹, Rokjin J Park²

Affiliations

¹ School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea.
² School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea. Electronic address: rjpark@snu.ac.kr.

PMID: 37062311
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.163505

Abstract

Synoptic meteorological variability plays an important role in determining air quality. In East Asia, the expansion and contraction of the Siberian high-pressure system is an essential mechanism for determining surface particulate matter concentrations (PM_2.5) during the winter season. Here, we selected four climate indices that reflected the variability of the Siberian high-pressure system and analyzed their correlation with the daily variability of the observed winter PM_2.5 concentrations in China and South Korea over the past six years (2014/15-2019/20). Siberian High Intensity (SHI) and East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) indices were good indicators of daily PM_2.5 concentration changes. Two to four days after the daily SHI and EAWM indices exceed the threshold (±1), the daily PM_2.5 concentrations in East Asia significantly increased or decreased, up to 40 % compared to the mean winter PM_2.5 concentrations. The climate indices associated with the Siberian high-pressure system thus potentially effectively forecast the daily PM_2.5 concentrations in East Asia within a period of one week.

Keywords: Climate index; East Asia; East Asian Winter Monsoon; PM(2.5); Siberian High Intensity; Siberian high-pressure system.