Falls are a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in older adults with dementia residing in long-term care. Having access to a frequently updated and accurate estimate of the likelihood of a fall over a short time frame for each resident will enable care staff to provide targeted interventions to prevent falls and resulting injuries. To this end, machine learning models to estimate and frequently update the risk of a fall within the next 4 weeks were trained on longitudinal data from 54 older adult participants with dementia. Data from each participant included baseline clinical assessments of gait, mobility, and fall risk at the time of admission, daily medication intake in three medication categories, and frequent assessments of gait performed via a computer vision-based ambient monitoring system. Systematic ablations investigated the effects of various hyperparameters and feature sets and experimentally identified differential contributions from baseline clinical assessments, ambient gait analysis, and daily medication intake. In leave-one-subject-out cross-validation, the best performing model predicts the likelihood of a fall over the next 4 weeks with a sensitivity and specificity of 72.8 and 73.2, respectively, and achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 76.2. By contrast, the best model excluding ambient gait features achieved an AUROC of 56.2 with a sensitivity and specificity of 51.9 and 54.0, respectively. Future research will focus on externally validating these findings to prepare for the implementation of this technology to reduce fall and fall-related injuries in long-term care.