Planting suitability determines the distribution and yield of crops in a given region which can be greatly affected by climate change. In recent years, many studies have shown that carbon dioxide fertilization effects increase the productivity of temperate deciduous fruit trees under a changing climate, but the potential risks to fruit tree planting caused by a reduction in suitable planting areas are rarely reported. In this study, Maxent was first used to investigate the spatial distribution of five Pyrus species in China, and the consistency between the actual production area and the modeled climatically suitable area under the current climatic conditions were determined. In addition, based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, three climate models were used to simulate the change in suitable area and the migration trend for different species under different emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). The results showed that the suitable area for pear was highly consistent with the actual main production area under current climate conditions. The potential planting areas of P. ussuriensis showed a downward trend under all emission paths from 2020 to 2100; other species showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing or slowing down and this growth effect was the most obvious in 2020-2040. Except for P. pashia, other species showed a migration trend toward a high latitude, and the trend was more prominent under the high emission path. Our results emphasize the response difference between species to climate change, and the method of consistency analysis between suitable planting area and actual production regions cannot only evaluate the potential planting risk but also provide a reasonable idea for the accuracy test of the modeled results. This work has certain guiding and reference significance for the protection of pear germplasm resources and the prediction of yield.
Keywords: CMIP6; Maxent; Pyrus; climate change; planting distribution.