Background: The Oxford and Swedish indexes were developed to predict in-hospital colectomy in acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC), but not long-term prediction, and all these indexes were based on Western data. Our study aimed to analyze the predictors of colectomy within 3 years of ASUC in an Indian cohort and derive a simple predictive score.
Methods: A prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary health care center in South India over a period of 5 years. All patients admitted with ASUC were followed up for a period of 24 months after the index admission, to look for progression to colectomy.
Results: A total of 81 (47 male) patients were included in the derivation cohort. Fifteen (18.5%) patients required colectomy during a follow-up period of 24 months. On regression analysis, C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin were independent predictors of 24-month colectomy. The CRAB (CRP + AlBumin) score was obtained by multiplying coefficient of beta to albumin and CRP (CRAB score = CRP x 0.2 - Albumin x 0.26). The CRAB score demonstrated an AUROC of 0.923 and a score of >0.4 with a sensitivity of 82% and specificity of 92% for the prediction of 2-year colectomy following ASUC. The score was validated in a validation cohort of 31 patients, and at >0.4, the score had a sensitivity of 83% and a specificity of 96% in predicting colectomy.
Conclusion: CRAB score is a simple prognostic score that can predict 2-year colectomy in ASUC patients with high sensitivity and specificity.
Keywords: Colectomy; inflammatory bowel disease; ulcerative colitis.