We aimed to investigate the joint, class-specific, and individual impacts of (i) PFAS, (ii) toxic metals and metalloids (referred to collectively as "metals"), and (iii) essential elements on birth outcomes in a prospective pregnancy cohort using both established and recent mixture modeling approaches. Participants included 537 mother-child pairs from the New Hampshire Birth Cohort Study. Concentrations of 6 metals and 5 PFAS were measured in maternal toenail clippings and plasma, respectively. Birth weight, birth length, and head circumference at birth were abstracted from medical records. Joint, index-wise, and individual associations of the metals and PFAS concentrations with birth outcomes were evaluated using Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression (BKMR) and Bayesian Multiple Index Models (BMIM). After controlling for potential confounders, the metals-PFAS mixture was associated with a larger head circumference at birth, which was driven by manganese. When using BKMR, the difference in the head circumference z-score when changing manganese from its 25th to 75th percentiles while holding all other mixture components at their medians was 0.22 standard deviations (95% posterior credible interval [CI]: -0.02, 0.46). When using BMIM, the posterior mean of index weight estimates assigned to manganese for head circumference z-score was 0.72 (95% CI: 0, 0.99). Prenatal exposure to the metals-PFAS mixture was not associated with birth weight or birth length by either BKMR or BMIM. Using both traditional and new mixture modeling approaches, prenatal exposure to manganese was associated with a larger head circumference at birth after accounting for exposure to PFAS and multiple toxic and essential metals.
Keywords: Bayesian multiple index model (BMIM); Birth outcomes; Environmental mixtures; Essential elements; Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS); Toxic metals.
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