Rationale and objective: To identify the radiological features and clinical biomarkers that could predict the occult metastasis (OM) of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC).
Materials and methods: This retrospective study included PDAC patients who were radiologically diagnosed resectable (R) or borderline resectable (BR) and underwent surgical exploration from January 2018 to December 2021. Depending on whether distant metastases were found during the exploration, patients were divided into OM and non-OM groups. Univariate and multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed to determine the radiological and clinical predictive factors for occult metastasis. Model performance was determined by discrimination and calibration.
Results: A total of 502 patients (median age, 64 years; interquartile range, 57-70 years; 294 men) were enrolled, among which 68 (13.5%) patients were found with distant metastases, with 45 liver-only, 19 peritoneal-only, four patients had both liver and peritoneal metastases. Rim enhancement and peripancreatic fat stranding were more frequent in the OM group than in the non-OM group. Tumor size (p = 0.028), tumor resectability (p = 0.031), rim enhancement (p < 0.001), peripancreatic fat stranding (p < 0.001) and level of CA125 (p = 0.021) were independent predictors of occult metastasis according to the multivariable analyses, and the areas under the curve (AUCs) of these characteristics were 0.703, 0.594, 0.638, 0.655, 0.631, respectively. The combined model showed the highest AUC of 0.823.
Conclusions: Rim enhancement, peripancreatic fat stranding, tumor size, tumor resectability and level of CA125 are risk factors for OM of PDAC. The combined model of radiological and clinical features may help the preoperative prediction of OM in PDAC.
Keywords: Metastasis; Multidetector computed tomography; Pancreatic cancer.
Copyright © 2023 The Association of University Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.