Association of fasting blood glucose variability with all-cause mortality in heart transplant recipients

Abstract

Background: Fasting blood glucose (FBG) variability, an emerging marker of glycemic control, has been shown to be related to the risk of cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality in subjects with or without diabetes. However, whether FBG variability is independently associated with a higher all-cause mortality in heart transplant recipients remains unknown.

Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study including 373 adult recipients who survived for at least 1 year after heart transplantation with a functioning graft and measured FBG more than three times within first year after transplantation. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression analyses were performed to assess the association between FBG variability and all-cause mortality.

Results: Patients were categorized into three groups according to the coefficient of variation of FBG level: ≤7.0%, 7.0%-13.5%, and >13.5%. During a median follow-up of 44.4 months (interquartile range [IQR], 22.6-63.3 months), 31 (8.3%) participants died. In univariate analyses, FBG variability was associated with an increased all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.00, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.67, 5.38; p < .001). This association remained materially unchanged in the multivariable model adjusted for components of demographics, cardiovascular history and lifestyle, hospital information, immunosuppressive therapy, and post-transplant renal function (HR: 2.75, 95% CI: 1.43, 5.28; p = .004).

Conclusions: After heart transplantation, high FBG variability is strongly and independently associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Our findings suggest that FBG variability is a novel risk factor and prognostic marker for heart transplantation recipients in outpatient clinic.

Keywords: all-cause mortality; coefficient of variation; fasting blood glucose variability; heart transplantation.