Post-pandemic shared mobility and active travel in Alabama: A machine learning analysis of COVID-19 survey data

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had unprecedented impacts on the way we get around, which has increased the need for physical and social distancing while traveling. Shared mobility, as an emerging travel mode that allows travelers to share vehicles or rides has been confronted with social distancing measures during the pandemic. On the contrary, the interest in active travel (e.g., walking and cycling) has been renewed in the context of pandemic-driven social distancing. Although extensive efforts have been made to show the changes in travel behavior during the pandemic, people's post-pandemic attitudes toward shared mobility and active travel are under-explored. This study examined Alabamians' post-pandemic travel preferences regarding shared mobility and active travel. An online survey was conducted among residents in the State of Alabama to collect Alabamians' perspectives on post-pandemic travel behavior changes, e.g., whether they will avoid ride-hailing services and walk or cycle more after the pandemic. Machine learning algorithms were used to model the survey data (N = 481) to identify the contributing factors of post-pandemic travel preferences. To reduce the bias of any single model, this study explored multiple machine learning methods, including Random Forest, Adaptive Boosting, Support Vector Machine, K-Nearest Neighbors, and Artificial Neural Network. Marginal effects of variables from multiple models were combined to show the quantified relationships between contributing factors and future travel intentions due to the pandemic. Modeling results showed that the interest in shared mobility would decrease among people whose one-way commuting time by driving is 30-45 min. The interest in shared mobility would increase for households with an annual income of $100,000 or more and people who reduced their commuting trips by over 50% during the pandemic. In terms of active travel, people who want to work from home more seemed to be interested in increasing active travel. This study provides an understanding of future travel preferences among Alabamians due to COVID-19. The information can be incorporated into local transportation plans that consider the impacts of the pandemic on future travel intentions.

Keywords: Active travel; COVID-19 pandemic; Machine learning; Shared mobility; Travel behavior.