Background: Occupational reintegration after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture is an important clinical issue including economic and health-related perspectives. This study aims to develop and validate a clinical prediction model of return to work in patients with ACL reconstruction surgery considering evidence-based clinical, anthropometric and occupational factors.
Methods: Data of 562 patients with an ACL rupture receiving an arthroscopic ACL reconstruction were used for analysis. A model for the binary outcome of experiencing an inability to work period of less or more than 14 days (model 1), and a model for finding predictor variables that are linearly associated with a continuous longer inability to work period of over 14 days (model 2) was calculated. Pre-operative determinants including patient characteristics and peri-operative factors were used as predictors for both models.
Results: For model 1, the highest increase in odds was observed for the occupational type of work, followed by injury of the medial collateral ligament together with partial weight bearing. Small protective effects were observed for female sex, meniscal suture and work with light occupational strain. The type of occupational work, together with revision surgery, a longer duration of limited range of motion and the presence of cartilage therapy were risk factors for longer inability to work. Discrimination and calibration statistics were satisfactory in internal validation.
Conclusion: Within the framework of clinical consideration, these prediction models will serve as an estimator for patients, their treating physicians and the socioeconomic partners to forecast the individual cost and benefit of ACL injury.
Keywords: ACL; Knee; Odds; Prediction model; Rupture; Sickness absence.
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