Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios

Jiangdong Liu; Hang Dong; Mengmeng Li; Ying Wu; Chunlin Zhang; Jinjian Chen; Zhou Yang; Guozhen Lin; De Li Liu; Jun Yang

doi:10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114157

Projecting the excess mortality due to heatwave and its characteristics under climate change, population and adaptation scenarios

Int J Hyg Environ Health. 2023 May:250:114157. doi: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114157. Epub 2023 Mar 28.

Authors

Jiangdong Liu¹, Hang Dong², Mengmeng Li³, Ying Wu⁴, Chunlin Zhang⁵, Jinjian Chen⁴, Zhou Yang⁴, Guozhen Lin⁶, De Li Liu⁷, Jun Yang⁸

Affiliations

¹ School of Public Health, Key Lab of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education and NHC Key Lab of Health Technology Assessment, Fudan University, Shanghai, 200032, China.
² Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 510440, China.
³ State Key Laboratory of Oncology in Southern China, Department of Epidemiology, Cancer Prevention Center, Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, Guangzhou, 510060, China.
⁴ Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China.
⁵ Institute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 511443, China.
⁶ Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, 510440, China. Electronic address: gzcdc_linguozhen@gz.gov.cn.
⁷ NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, NSW, 2650, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia.
⁸ School of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou, 511436, China. Electronic address: yangjun_eci@jnu.edu.cn.

PMID: 36989996
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijheh.2023.114157

Abstract

Background: Heatwaves have significant adverse effects on human health. The frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves are projected to increase dramatically, in the context of global warming. However, there are few comprehensive assessments of the health impact of heatwaves considering different definitions, and their characteristics under climate change scenarios.

Objective: We aimed to compare future excess mortality related to heatwaves among different definitions under climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in China and further explore the mortality burden associated with heatwave characteristics.

Methods: Daily data during 2010-2019 were collected in Guangzhou, China. We adopted nine common heatwave definitions and applied quasi-Poisson models to estimate the effects of heatwaves and their characteristics' impact on mortality. We then projected the excess mortality associated with heatwaves and their characteristics concerning climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

Results: The relative risks of the nine common heatwave definitions ranged from 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01, 1.10) to 1.24 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.35). Heatwave-related excess mortality will consistently increase in the future decades considering multiple heatwave definitions, with more rapidly increasing rates under the Shared Socioeconomic Path5-8.5 and non-adaptability scenarios. Regarding heatwave characteristics, the intensity is the main factor involved in the threat of heatwaves. The increasing trend of characteristic-related mortality burden is similar to that of heatwaves, and the mortality burden caused by the duration of the heatwaves was the largest among all characteristics.

Conclusions: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of heatwaves and their characteristics on public health under various climate change scenarios, population changes, and adaptive assumptions. The results may provide important public health implications for policymakers in planning climate change adaptation and mitigation policies, and implementing specific plans.

Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Heat wave characteristics; Heatwave; Mortality.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

China / epidemiology
Climate Change*
Global Warming*
Hot Temperature
Humans
Infrared Rays
Mortality
Risk