Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia

Shohei Nakamura; Kseniya Abanokova; Hai-Anh H Dang; Shinya Takamatsu; Chunchen Pei; Dilou Prospere

doi:10.3390/ijerph20064865

Is Climate Change Slowing the Urban Escalator Out of Poverty? Evidence from Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Mar 10;20(6):4865. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20064865.

Authors

Shohei Nakamura¹, Kseniya Abanokova¹, Hai-Anh H Dang^{1

2

3

4}, Shinya Takamatsu¹, Chunchen Pei⁵, Dilou Prospere⁶

Affiliations

¹ World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, USA.
² International School, Vietnam National University, Hanoi 123105, Vietnam.
³ Indiana University, Bloomington, IN 47405, USA.
⁴ IZA, Schaumburg-Lippe-Strasse 5-9, 53113 Bonn, Germany.
⁵ School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
⁶ Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University, Osaka 560-0021, Japan.

Abstract

While urbanization has great potential to facilitate poverty reduction, climate shocks represent a looming threat to such upward mobility. This paper empirically analyzes the effects of climatic risks on the function of urban agglomerations to support poor households' escape from poverty. Combining household surveys with climatic datasets, our analyses of Chile, Colombia, and Indonesia find that households in large metropolitan areas are more likely to escape from poverty, indicating better access to economic opportunities in those areas. However, climate shocks such as extreme rainfalls and high flood risks significantly reduce upward mobility, thus offsetting such benefits of urban agglomerations. The findings underscore the need to enhance resilience among the urban poor to allow them to fully utilize the benefits of urban agglomerations.

Keywords: climatic change; flooding; migration; poverty; urban agglomeration.

Publication types

Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Chile
Climate Change*
Colombia
Elevators and Escalators
Humans
Indonesia
Poverty*
Urban Population

Grants and funding

The authors gratefully acknowledge support from the World Bank report Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Challenging Climate and the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) for funding assistance through the Data and Evidence for Tackling Extreme Poverty (DEEP) Research Program (P175686).