Do increases in the price of fuel increase levels of fuel theft? Evidence from England and Wales

Aiden Sidebottom; Iain Agar; Justin Kurland

doi:10.1186/s40163-023-00182-7

Do increases in the price of fuel increase levels of fuel theft? Evidence from England and Wales

Crime Sci. 2023;12(1):7. doi: 10.1186/s40163-023-00182-7. Epub 2023 Mar 22.

Authors

Aiden Sidebottom¹, Iain Agar², Justin Kurland³

Affiliations

¹ Jill Dando Institute of Security and Crime Science, University College London, London, UK.
² London Metropolitan Police Service, London, UK.
³ Independent Scholar, Brattleboro, USA.

Abstract

Fuel prices have increased sharply over the past year. In this study we test the hypothesis that increases in the price of fuel are associated with increases in motorists filling their fuel tank and driving off without paying. We use weekly crime data from six police forces in England and Wales for the period January 2018 to July 2022, combined with regional data on the number of fuel sales and average fuel prices. Our results demonstrate an overall weak price-theft relationship for the 238 week study period, less so than in previous studies. However, we find strong evidence that the recent spike in fuel prices was associated with elevated levels of fuel theft. The implications of our findings for future research and crime prevention are discussed.

Keywords: Bilking; Drive-offs; Fuel; Petrol; Price; Theft.