Atmospheric CO2 forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs

Andreas Koutsodendris; Vasilis Dakos; William J Fletcher; Maria Knipping; Ulrich Kotthoff; Alice M Milner; Ulrich C Müller; Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr; Oliver A Kern; Laurin Kolb; Polina Vakhrameeva; Sabine Wulf; Kimon Christanis; Gerhard Schmiedl; Jörg Pross

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x

Atmospheric CO₂ forcing on Mediterranean biomes during the past 500 kyrs

Nat Commun. 2023 Mar 25;14(1):1664. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-37388-x.

Authors

Andreas Koutsodendris¹, Vasilis Dakos^{2

3}, William J Fletcher⁴, Maria Knipping⁵, Ulrich Kotthoff^{6

7}, Alice M Milner⁸, Ulrich C Müller^{9

10}, Stefanie Kaboth-Bahr^{11

12}, Oliver A Kern¹¹, Laurin Kolb¹¹, Polina Vakhrameeva¹¹, Sabine Wulf¹³, Kimon Christanis¹⁴, Gerhard Schmiedl⁶, Jörg Pross^{11

10}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Earth Sciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany. andreas.koutsodendris@geow.uni-heidelberg.de.
² Institute des Sciences de l'Évolution, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, EPHE, Montpellier, France.
³ Institut d'Écologie et des Sciences de l'Environnement de Paris (iEES Paris), Sorbonne Université, Paris, France.
⁴ School of Environment, Education and Development, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
⁵ Department of Molecular Botany, Institute of Biology, University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany.
⁶ Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Institute of Geology, Hamburg University, Hamburg, Germany.
⁷ Leibniz Institute for the Analysis of Biodiversity Change (LIB), Hamburg, Germany.
⁸ Department of Geography, Royal Holloway University of London, London, UK.
⁹ Parlamentsstraße 32, 60385, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
¹⁰ Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
¹¹ Institute of Earth Sciences, Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
¹² Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam-Golm, Germany.
¹³ School of the Environment, Geography and Geosciences, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, UK.
¹⁴ Department of Geology, University of Patras, Rio, Greece.

Abstract

There is growing concern on the survival of Mediterranean forests under the projected near-future droughts as a result of anthropogenic climate change. Here we determine the resilience of Mediterranean forests across the entire range of climatic boundary conditions realized during the past 500 kyrs based on continuous pollen and geochemical records of (sub)centennial-scale resolution from drillcores from Tenaghi Philippon, Greece. Using convergent cross-mapping we provide empirical confirmation that global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) may affect Mediterranean vegetation through forcing on moisture availability. Our analysis documents two stable vegetation regimes across the wide range of CO₂ and moisture levels realized during the past four glacial-interglacial cycles, with abrupt shifts from forest to steppe biomes occurring when a threshold in precipitation is crossed. Our approach highlights that a CO₂-driven moisture decrease in the near future may bear an impending risk for abrupt vegetation regime shifts prompting forest loss in the Mediterranean region.

Abstract

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