Scenario analysis of phosphorus flow in food production and consumption system in the Mwanza region, Tanzania

Zheng Guo; Sophia Shuang Chen; Giri Raj Kattel; Anna Charles Mkumbo; Chuanhe Xiong; Qun Gao; Qiushi Shen

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162991

Scenario analysis of phosphorus flow in food production and consumption system in the Mwanza region, Tanzania

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jun 25:879:162991. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162991. Epub 2023 Mar 23.

Authors

Zheng Guo¹, Sophia Shuang Chen², Giri Raj Kattel³, Anna Charles Mkumbo⁴, Chuanhe Xiong⁵, Qun Gao⁵, Qiushi Shen⁵

Affiliations

¹ School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
² School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China. Electronic address: schens@niglas.ac.cn.
³ School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China; Department of Infrastructure Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Parkville 3010, Australia; Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
⁴ Tanzania Fisheries Research Institute, P.O. Box 750, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.
⁵ Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, Jiangsu, China.

PMID: 36963684
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162991

Abstract

Since the mineral, phosphorus (P), has dual properties of being limited resources for use, and being a pollutant for studying sustainable management of anthropogenic P flows in wetlands and soils, currently P receives the highest interests among researchers around the world. This study has successfully mapped P flows for a reference year (2017) and a future year (2030) using different scenarios of food production and consumption system (hereafter 'system') in the Mwanza region (Tanzania). The results showed that the total P input and output for 2017 alone were 9770 t and 7989 t, respectively. However, as high as 1781 tP accumulated in the system and the potentially recyclable P found, is yet to be recovered due to economic reasons and the lack of market. The main anthropogenic P input to the system occurred via imported feed, fertilizer, and crop food, accounting for about 99.72 % of the total input flow. The output was comprised of animal products exported with 3428 tP, and various P-contained wastes which were lost to water bodies with 4561tP. Analysis of the 2030 scenario showed that setting P management objectives from different perspectives such as the total P budget balance, potential recyclable P, and P emission, can help develop differentially preferred management strategies and measures in the Mwanza region. The combination of diet change, precision feeding, and integrated waste management practices presents the best prospects for decreasing P budget and losses, and the amount of P that can be potentially recovered from the system. We propose a package of integrated P management measures for the Mwanza region. Given the similarity of regional socio-economic development background around the Lake Victoria basin, the model can be used to guide the study of anthropogenic P flow analysis in other areas along the shore of Lake Victoria (Africa).

Keywords: Food production and consumption; Mwanza region; Phosphorus flow model; Sustainable management; Tanzania.

MeSH terms

Animals
Food
Phosphorus*
Soil
Tanzania
Waste Management*

Substances

Phosphorus
Soil