Dietary patterns explaining variations in blood biomarkers in young adults are associated with the 30-year predicted cardiovascular disease risks in midlife: A follow-up study

Abstract

Background and aims: To examine a combined effect of dietary intakes, blood lipid and insulin resistance in young adulthood on the risk of predicted CVD through midlife.

Methods and results: Data of young adults from a birth cohort study in Australia were used. Reduced rank regression (RRR) and partial least squares (PLS) methods identified dietary patterns rich in meats, refined grains, processed and fried foods, and high-fat dairy and low in whole grains and low-fat dairy from dietary intakes obtained at 21-years, and blood lipids and measures of insulin resistance measured at 30-years of age. Using standard CVD risk factors measured at 30-years of age, the Framingham Heart Study risk-prediction algorithms were used to calculate the 30-year predicted Framingham CVD risk scores. The scores represent Hard CVD events; coronary death, myocardial infarction and stroke and Full CVD events; Hard CVD plus coronary insufficiency and angina pectoris, transient ischaemic attack, intermittent claudication, and congestive heart failure in midlife. Sex-specific upper quartiles of CVD risk scores were used to define high-risk groups. Modified Poisson regression models were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) with 95% CI. Greater adherence to the diet identified applying RRR in young adulthood was associated with higher risks of predicted Hard CVD (RR: 1.60; 1.14, 2.25) and Full CVD (RR: 1.46; 1.04, 2.05) events in midlife. The diet from PLS showed similar trend of association for the risk of predicted Hard CVD events (RR: 1.49; 1.03, 2.16) in adjusted models.

Conclusion: Dietary patterns associated with variations in blood lipids and insulin resistance in young adulthood are associated with increased risks of predicted CVD events in midlife. The findings suggest that diet induced altered blood lipids and insulin resistance in the life course of young adulthood could increase the risks of CVD events in later life.

Keywords: Blood lipids and insulin resistance; Dietary patterns; Framingham risk score; Reduced rank regression; Young adults.