A preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing resection for single hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract

Background and aim: The updated Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer guidelines recommend liver resection (LR) for patients with single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) of any size. This study developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence in patients undergoing LR for single HCC.

Materials and methods: We identified 773 patients undergoing LR for single HCC between 2011 and 2017 from the cancer registry database of our institution. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to construct a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence, i.e., recurrence within 2 years of LR.

Results: Early recurrence was identified in 219 patients (28.3%). The final model of early recurrence included four predictive factors-alpha-fetoprotein level of ≥20 ng/mL, tumor size of >30 mm, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score of >8, and cirrhosis. Preoperative application of this model provided three risk strata for recurrence-free survival (RFS): low risk, with 2-year RFS of 79.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 75.7-84.2%); intermediate risk, with 2-year RFS of 66.6% (95% CI: 61.1-72.6%); and high risk, with 2-year RFS of 51.1% (95% CI: 43.0-60.8%).

Conclusion: We developed a preoperative model for predicting early recurrence after LR for single HCC. This model provides useful information for clinical decision-making.

Keywords: Early recurrenc; Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver resection.