Assessment of solar energy potential in China using an ensemble of photovoltaic power models

Yuwen Chen; Xu Yue; Chenguang Tian; Husi Letu; Lunche Wang; Hao Zhou; Yuan Zhao; Weijie Fu; Xu Zhao; Daofu Peng; Jia Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162979

Assessment of solar energy potential in China using an ensemble of photovoltaic power models

Sci Total Environ. 2023 Jun 15:877:162979. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162979. Epub 2023 Mar 21.

Authors

Yuwen Chen¹, Xu Yue², Chenguang Tian¹, Husi Letu³, Lunche Wang⁴, Hao Zhou⁵, Yuan Zhao¹, Weijie Fu¹, Xu Zhao¹, Daofu Peng¹, Jia Zhang¹

Affiliations

¹ Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China.
² Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology (NUIST), Nanjing 210044, China. Electronic address: yuexu@nuist.edu.cn.
³ State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, The Aerospace Information Research Institute (AIR), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
⁴ Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China.
⁵ Climate Change Research Center, Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.

PMID: 36948316
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162979

Abstract

Development of solar energy is one of the key solutions towards carbon neutrality in China. The output of solar energy is dependent on weather conditions and shows distinct spatiotemporal characteristics. Previous studies have explored the photovoltaic (PV) power potential in China but with single models and low-resolution radiation data. Here, we estimated the PV power potential in China for 2016-2019 using an ensemble of 11 PV models based on hourly solar radiation at the resolution of 5 km retrieved by the Himawari-8 geostationary satellite. On the national scale, the ensemble method revealed an annual average PV power potential of 242.79 kWh m^-2 with the maximum in the west (especially the Tibetan Plateau) and the minimum in the southeast (especially the Sichuan Basin). The multi-model approach shows inter-model spreads of 6 %-7 % distributed uniformly in China, suggesting a robust spatial pattern predicted by these models. The seasonal variation in general shows the largest PV power generation in summer months except for Tibetan Plateau, where the peak value appears in spring because the high cloud coverage dampens the regional solar radiation in summer. On the national scale, the deseasonalized PV power potential shows a high correlation with cloud coverage (R² = 0.71, p < 0.01) but a low correlation with aerosol optical depth (R² = 0.08, p < 0.05). Sensitivity experiments show that national PV power potential increases by 0.55 % per 1 W m^-2 increase of radiation and 0.79 % per 1 m s^-1 increase of wind speed, but decreases by 0.46 % per 1 °C increase of air temperature. These sensitivities provide a solid foundation for the future projection of PV power potential in China under climate change.

Keywords: Himawari-8; Multi-model ensemble; Photovoltaic power potential; Solar radiation.