From pilots to demonstrations: the green economic development effect of low-carbon city pilot policies

Abstract

Accurately assessing the impact of low-carbon urban construction on green economic development has great significance for achieving economic development with environmental protection, and for building an ecological civilization and a beautiful China. Based on panel data for 271 cities in China from 2004 to 2019, multi-period and spatial difference-in-difference econometric models were used to comprehensively investigate the impact of three batches of low-carbon city pilot policies on green economic development, finding the following: The contribution of low-carbon urban construction on urban green economic development is significant and positive, and still holds under a series of robustness tests. Parallel trend tests also show a lag in the policy effect, and the effect is strengthened over policy implementation time. Green orientation of technological progress, green transformation of industry, and green upgrade of consumption are important channels for the effect of the policies. The promotion effect of low-carbon city construction is stronger in the central and northern cities, and in cities with high green economic development, than in western and southern cities, and those with low green economic development. Construction of low-carbon pilot cities not only promotes their own green economic development, but also that in neighboring cities, exerting a demonstration effect. This effect is greater in urban areas. This study provides empirical support for policy planning to promote low-carbon urban construction across the country.

Keywords: Dual difference spatial econometric model; Green economic development effect; Low-carbon city pilot policies; Multi-period difference-in-difference.