MELD 3.0 for adolescent liver transplant candidates

Abstract

Background and aims: Adolescents constitute a unique waitlist cohort that is distinct from younger children. Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) 3.0, which was developed in an adult population of liver transplant candidates, is planned to replace MELD-Sodium in the current liver allocation system for both adults and adolescents aged 12-17. We evaluated the predictive performance of MELD-Sodium, MELD 3.0, and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease for 90-day waitlist mortality risk among adolescent liver transplant registrants.

Approach and results: New waitlist registrations for primary liver transplants among individuals aged 12-17 and 18-25 for comparison were identified using Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) data from November 17, 2004, to December 31, 2021. The predictive performance of the current and proposed MELD and Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease scores was assessed using Harrell's concordance ( c ) statistic. There were 1238 eligible listings for adolescents aged 12-17 and 1740 young adults aged 18-25. In the adolescent group, 90-day survival was 97.8%, compared with 95.9% in those aged 18-25 (log-rank p = 0.005), with no significant differences when stratified by sex or indication. Among adolescents, increasing MELD 3.0 was associated with an increased hazard of mortality (HR=1.27, 95% CI: 1.18-1.37), and the c -statistic for 90-day waitlist survival using MELD 3.0 was 0.893 compared with 0.871 using MELD-Sodium and 0.852 using Pediatric End-stage Liver Disease.

Conclusions: The discriminative ability of MELD 3.0 to rank adolescents according to the risk of death within 90 days was robust. Although MELD 3.0 was initially developed and validated in adults, MELD 3.0 may also improve the prediction of waitlist mortality in adolescents and better represent their urgency for liver transplants.