Identification of an immunogenic cell death-related gene signature predicts survival and sensitivity to immunotherapy in clear cell renal carcinoma

Abstract

Immunogenic cell death (ICD) is the trigger of adaptive immune responses. However, the role of ICD-related genes in clear cell renal carcinoma (ccRCC) remains unclear. We aimed to identify biomarkers associated with ICD and develop an ICD-related predictive model that predicts the immune microenvironment, prognosis, and response to immunotherapy in ccRCC. Our study included 739 patients (603 in the training set and 136 in the validation set) with clinicopathologic information and transcriptome sequencing data. Consensus clustering, principal component analysis (PCA), weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA), univariate COX analysis, multivariate COX analysis, and the Lasso-Cox algorithm were applied to shrink predictors and construct a predictive signature of overall survival (OS). We used CIBERSORT, ESTIMATE, and TIMER in the R package IOBR to evaluate the tumor microenvironment and immune infiltration pattern of each sample. Finally, the single cell sequencing results of immune cells in ccRCC were used to verify the results of immune infiltration analysis, and the performance of the prognostic model was evaluated by calibration curves and c-index. This study revealed that inability of the initial immune response and primary immunodeficiency were significantly enriched in the ICD subgroup with poor prognosis. We found that the ten candidate ICD genes (CALR, ENTPD1, FOXP3, HSP90AA1, IFNB1, IFNG, IL6, LY96, PIK3CA, and TLR4) could affect the prognosis of ccRCC (p < 0.05). The prediction model (PRE) we constructed can not only predict the long-term survival probability but also evaluate the landscape of immune infiltration in ccRCC. Our study demonstrated that low infiltration of dendritic cells in ccRCC implies a poor prognosis, whereas the degree of CTL infiltration is less important. An individualized prediction model was created to predict the 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year survival and responsiveness of ccRCC patients to immunotherapy, which may serve as a potent tool for clinicians to make better treatment decisions and thus improve the overall survival (OS) of ccRCC patients in the future.