Prognostic value of deep learning-based fibrosis quantification on chest CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the prognostic value of deep learning (DL)-driven CT fibrosis quantification in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF).

Methods: Patients diagnosed with IPF who underwent nonenhanced chest CT and spirometry between 2005 and 2009 were retrospectively collected. Proportions of normal (CT-Norm%) and fibrotic lung volume (CT-Fib%) were calculated on CT using the DL software. The correlations of CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% with forced vital capacity (FVC) and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (D_LCO) were evaluated. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% for overall survival were calculated with clinical and physiologic variables as covariates using Cox regression. The feasibility of substituting CT-Norm% for D_LCO in the GAP index was investigated using time-dependent areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (TD-AUCs) at 3 years.

Results: In total, 161 patients (median age [IQR], 68 [62-73] years; 104 men) were evaluated. CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% showed significant correlations with FVC (Pearson's r, 0.40 for CT-Norm% and - 0.37 for CT-Fib%; both p < 0.001) and D_LCO (0.52 for CT-Norm% and - 0.46 for CT-Fib%; both p < 0.001). On multivariable Cox regression, both CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% were independent prognostic factors when adjusted to age, sex, smoking status, comorbid chronic diseases, FVC, and D_LCO (HRs, 0.98 [95% CI 0.97-0.99; p < 0.001] for CT-Norm% at 3 years and 1.03 [1.01-1.05; p = 0.01] for CT-Fib%). Substituting CT-Norm% for D_LCO showed comparable discrimination to the original GAP index (TD-AUC, 0.82 [0.78-0.85] vs. 0.82 [0.79-0.86]; p = 0.75).

Conclusion: CT-Norm% and CT-Fib% calculated using chest CT-based deep learning software were independent prognostic factors for overall survival in IPF.

Key points: • Normal and fibrotic lung volume proportions were automatically calculated using commercial deep learning software from chest CT taken from 161 patients diagnosed with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis. • CT-quantified volumetric parameters from commercial deep learning software were correlated with forced vital capacity (Pearson's r, 0.40 for normal and - 0.37 for fibrotic lung volume proportions) and diffusion capacity of carbon monoxide (Pearson's r, 0.52 and - 0.46, respectively). • Normal and fibrotic lung volume proportions (hazard ratios, 0.98 and 1.04; both p < 0.001) independently predicted overall survival when adjusted for clinical and physiologic variables.

Keywords: Deep learning; Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis; Multidetector computed tomography; Prognosis.