Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and impact factors of hepatitis B and C in China from 2010 to 2018: Bayesian space-time hierarchy model

Abstract

Introduction: Viral hepatitis is a global public health problem, and China still faces great challenges to achieve the WHO goal of eliminating hepatitis.

Methods: This study focused on hepatitis B and C, aiming to explore the long-term spatiotemporal heterogeneity of hepatitis B and C incidence in China from 2010 to 2018 and quantify the impact of socioeconomic factors on their risk through Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical model.

Results: The results showed that the risk of hepatitis B and C had significant spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The risk of hepatitis B showed a slow downward trend, and the high-risk provinces were mainly distributed in the southeast and northwest regions, while the risk of hepatitis C had a clear growth trend, and the high-risk provinces were mainly distributed in the northern region. In addition, for hepatitis B, illiteracy and hepatitis C prevalence were the main contributing factors, while GDP per capita, illiteracy rate and hepatitis B prevalence were the main contributing factors to hepatitis C.

Disussion: This study analyzed the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of hepatitis B and C and their contributing factors, which can serve as a basis for monitoring efforts. Meanwhile, the data provided by this study will contribute to the effective allocation of resources to eliminate viral hepatitis and the design of interventions at the provincial level.

Keywords: Bayesian model; GDPta; hepatitis B; hepatitis C; illiteracy rate; spatiotemporal heterogeneity.