Expert elicitation of risk factors for progression to dementia in individuals with mild cognitive impairment

Meng Wang; Tolulope T Sajobi; David B Hogan; Aravind Ganesh; Dallas P Seitz; Thierry Chekouo; Nils D Forkert; Michael J Borrie; Richard Camicioli; Ging-Yuek Robin Hsiung; Mario Masellis; Paige Moorhouse; Maria Carmela Tartaglia; Zahinoor Ismail; Eric E Smith

doi:10.1002/alz.12987

Expert elicitation of risk factors for progression to dementia in individuals with mild cognitive impairment

Alzheimers Dement. 2023 Oct;19(10):4542-4548. doi: 10.1002/alz.12987. Epub 2023 Mar 15.

Authors

Meng Wang^{1

2}, Tolulope T Sajobi^{1

2}, David B Hogan^{1

2}, Aravind Ganesh², Dallas P Seitz³, Thierry Chekouo⁴, Nils D Forkert^{2

5}, Michael J Borrie⁶, Richard Camicioli⁷, Ging-Yuek Robin Hsiung⁸, Mario Masellis⁹, Paige Moorhouse¹⁰, Maria Carmela Tartaglia¹¹, Zahinoor Ismail^{1

2

3}, Eric E Smith²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Community Health Sciences & O'Brien Institute of Public Health, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada.
² Department of Clinical Neurosciences & Hotchkiss Brain Institute, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada.
³ Department of Psychiatry, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada.
⁴ Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA.
⁵ Department of Radiology, University of Calgary, Calgary, Canada.
⁶ Department of Medicine, Division of Geriatric Medicine, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada.
⁷ Department of Medicine, Division of Neurology, University of Alberta, Alberta, Canada.
⁸ Division of Neurology, Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
⁹ Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Canada.
¹⁰ Division of Geriatric Medicine, Department of Medicine, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada.
¹¹ Tanz Centre for Research in Neurodegenerative Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

PMID: 36919891
DOI: 10.1002/alz.12987

Abstract

Introduction: This study assesses experts' beliefs about important predictors of developing dementia in persons with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).

Methods: Structured expert elicitation, a methodology to quantify expert knowledge, was used to elicit the most important risk factors for developing dementia. We recruited 11 experts (6 neurologists, 3 geriatricians, and 2 psychiatrists). Ten experts fully participated in introductory meetings, two rounds of surveys, and discussion meetings. The data from these ten experts were utilized for this study.

Results: The expert elicitation identified age, CSF analysis, fluorodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) findings, hippocampal atrophy, MoCA (or MMSE) score, parkinsonism, apathy, psychosis, informant report of cognitive symptoms, and global atrophy as the ten most important predictors of progressing to dementia in persons with MCI.

Discussion: Several dementia predictors are not routinely collected in existing registries, observational studies, or usual care. This might partially explain the low uptake of existing published dementia risk scores in clinical practice.

Keywords: dementia; elicitation; mild cognitive impairment; risk prediction.

Publication types

Observational Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Alzheimer Disease* / diagnosis
Atrophy
Cognitive Dysfunction* / diagnosis
Disease Progression
Fluorodeoxyglucose F18
Humans

Substances

Fluorodeoxyglucose F18