The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal

Alexandre M Ramos; Ana Russo; Carlos C DaCamara; Silvia Nunes; Pedro Sousa; P M M Soares; Miguel M Lima; Alexandra Hurduc; Ricardo M Trigo

doi:10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141

The compound event that triggered the destructive fires of October 2017 in Portugal

iScience. 2023 Feb 4;26(3):106141. doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106141. eCollection 2023 Mar 17.

Authors

Alexandre M Ramos^{1

2}, Ana Russo², Carlos C DaCamara², Silvia Nunes², Pedro Sousa^{2

3}, P M M Soares², Miguel M Lima², Alexandra Hurduc², Ricardo M Trigo^{2

4}

Affiliations

¹ Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, Building 435, Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, 76344, Karlsruhe, Germany.
² Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Dom Luiz, 1749-016 Lisbon, Portugal.
³ Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera (IPMA), 1749-077 Lisbon, Portugal.
⁴ Departamento de Meteorologia, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro 21941-919, Brazil.

Abstract

Portugal is regularly affected by destructive wildfires that have severe social, economic, and ecological impacts. The total burnt area in 2017 (∼540,000 ha) marked the all-time record value since 1980 with a tragic toll of 114 fatalities that occurred in June and October events. The local insurance sector declared it was the costliest natural disaster in Portugal with payouts exceeding USD295 million. Here, the 2017 October event, responsible for more than 200,000 ha of burnt area and 50 fatalities is analyzed from a compound perspective. A prolonged drought led to preconditioned cumulative hydric stress of vegetation in October 2017. In addition, on 15 October 2017, two other major drivers played a critical role: 1) the passage of hurricane Ophelia off the Coast of Portugal, responsible for exceptional meteorological conditions and 2) the human agent, responsible for an extremely elevated number of negligent ignitions. This disastrous combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers led to the uncontrolled wildfires observed on 15 October.

Keywords: Atmospheric science; Climatology; earth sciences.