Systematic review of applied mathematical models for the control of Schistosoma japonicum

Callum Lowe; Zohre Ahmadabadi; Darren Gray; Matthew Kelly; Donald P McManus; Gail Williams

doi:10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106873

Systematic review of applied mathematical models for the control of Schistosoma japonicum

Acta Trop. 2023 May:241:106873. doi: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106873. Epub 2023 Mar 11.

Authors

Callum Lowe¹, Zohre Ahmadabadi², Darren Gray³, Matthew Kelly⁴, Donald P McManus⁵, Gail Williams²

Affiliations

¹ Department of Global Health, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Building 62a Mills Street, ACT, Acton 2601, Australia. Electronic address: callum.lowe@anu.edu.au.
² School of Public Health, Discipline of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
³ Department of Global Health, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Building 62a Mills Street, ACT, Acton 2601, Australia; School of Public Health, Discipline of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Infection and Inflammation Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia.
⁴ Department of Global Health, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Australian National University, Building 62a Mills Street, ACT, Acton 2601, Australia.
⁵ Infection and Inflammation Program, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Brisbane, QLD 4006, Australia.

PMID: 36907291
DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106873

Abstract

Background: Schistosoma japonicum remains endemic in China and the Philippines. Substantial progress has been made in the control of Japonicum in both China and the Philippines. China is reaching elimination thanks to a concerted effort of control strategies. Mathematical modelling has been a key tool in the design of control strategies, in place of expensive randomised-controlled trials. We conducted a systematic review to investigate mathematical models of Japonicum control strategies in China and the Philippines.

Methods: We conducted a systematic review on July 5, 2020, in four electronic bibliographic databases - PubMed, Web of Science, SCOPUS and Embase. Articles were screened for relevance and for meeting the inclusion criteria. Data extracted included authors, year of publication, year of data collection, setting and ecological context, objectives, control strategies, main findings, the form and content of the model including its background, type, representation of population dynamics, heterogeneity of hosts, simulation period, source of parameters, model validation and sensitivity analysis. Results After screening, 19 eligible papers were included in the systematic review. Seventeen considered control strategies in China and two in the Philippines. Two frameworks were identified; the mean-worm burden framework and the prevalence-based framework, the latter of which increasingly common. Most models considered human and bovine definitive hosts. There were mixed additional elements included in the models, such as alternative definitive hosts and the role of seasonality and weather. Models generally agreed upon the need for an integrated control strategy rather than reliance on mass drug administration alone to sustain reductions in prevalence.

Conclusions: Mathematical modelling of Japonicum has converged from multiple approaches to modelling using the prevalence-based framework with human and bovine definitive hosts and find integrated control strategies to be most effective. Further research could investigate the role of other definitive hosts and model the effect of seasonal fluctuations in transmission.

Keywords: China; Japonicum; Mathematical modelling; Neglected tropical disease; Philippines; Schistosomiasis.

Publication types

Systematic Review
Review

MeSH terms

Animals
Cattle
China / epidemiology
Computer Simulation
Humans
Models, Theoretical
Schistosoma japonicum*
Schistosomiasis japonica* / epidemiology
Schistosomiasis japonica* / prevention & control