Understanding the effects of agroforestry systems (AFs) on soil organic carbon (SOC) requires long-term experiments, but scenarios simulations can anticipate the potential of these systems to sequester or lose carbon (C). This study aimed to simulate the SOC dynamics in slash and burn management (BURN) and AFs using the Century model. Data from a long-term experiment implemented in the Brazilian semiarid region were used to simulate SOC dynamics under BURN and AFs situations, and the natural vegetation (NV) "Caatinga" as a reference. BURN scenarios considered different fallow periods (0, 7, 15, 30, 50 and 100 years) among cultivation of the same area. The two types of AFs (agrosilvopastoral-AGP and silvopastoral-SILV) were simulated in two contrasting conditions: (i) each one of the AFs and also NV area were permanently conducted with no rotation among these areas; and (ii) the two AFs and NV rotated among them every 7 years. The correlation coefficients (r), coefficients of determination (CD) and coefficients of residual mass (CRM) showed adequate performance, meaning that the Century model is able to reproduce the SOC stocks in the slash and burn management and AFs situations. The equilibrium points of NV SOC stocks stabilized around 30.3 Mg ha-1, as similar to the measured average of 28.4 Mg ha-1 at field conditions. The adoption of BURN without a fallow period (0 years) resulted in a reduction of 50% of SOC, approximately 20 Mg ha-1, after the first 10 years. Permanent (p) and rotating (r) AFs management systems recovered (in 10 years) fast to the original SOC stocks, resulting in higher SOC stocks than NV SOC at equilibrium. The fallow period of 50 years is necessary to recovery SOC stocks in the Caatinga biome. The simulation shows that the AFs systems increase more SOC stocks than observed in natural vegetation in long-term.
Keywords: Animal production; Caatinga; Fallow period; Simulation; Soil carbon.
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