Quantitative ecological risk assessment of oil spills: The case of the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago

Abstract

The upward trend in maritime oil transport increases the risk of oil spills, which have the potential to cause considerable damage to the marine environment. Therefore, a formal approach to quantify such risks is required. In mid-2010, a conservative Quantitative Ecological Risk Assessment based on population modeling, was performed in the Fernando de Noronha Archipelago. In this research, we enhance a previous assessment using the following models: (i) a Lagrangian approach to perform oil spill simulations, and (ii) the estimated frequency of accidents aggregating databases and expert opinions through a Bayesian-based method. Then, we quantify ecological risks as probabilities of half loss (i.e., 50 % population size decline) of a representative species of the archipelago's ecosystem. The results are summarized into risk categories to be straightforwardly communicated to the general public and provide reliable information that can aid decision-makers in coping with these events.

Keywords: Bayesian variability analysis; Ecological modeling; Maritime accidents; Oil spill modeling; Quantitative risk assessment.