Artificial neural network (ANN)-based estimation of the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic and emerging financial markets

Hafiz Muhammad Naveed; Yao HongXing; Bilal Ahmed Memon; Shoaib Ali; Mohammed Ismail Alhussam; Jan Muhammad Sohu

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122470

Artificial neural network (ANN)-based estimation of the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic and emerging financial markets

Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2023 May:190:122470. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122470. Epub 2023 Mar 2.

Authors

Hafiz Muhammad Naveed¹, Yao HongXing¹, Bilal Ahmed Memon², Shoaib Ali³, Mohammed Ismail Alhussam⁴, Jan Muhammad Sohu^{3

5}

Affiliations

¹ School of Finance and Economics, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang, Jiangsu 212013, China.
² School of Business and Economics, Westminster International University in Tashkent,Uzbekistan.
³ School of Management Sciences, Jiangsu University, 301 Xuefu Road, Zhenjiang 212013, Jiangsu, China.
⁴ School of Economics and Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen, China.
⁵ Department of Business Administration, Sukkur IBA University, Pakistan.

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious global issue destroying financial markets awfully. The proper estimation effect of COVID-19 pandemic on dynamic emerging financial markets is a big challenge due to a complex multidimensional data. However, the present study proposes a Deep Neural Network (DNN)-based multivariate regression approach with backpropagation algorithm and structural learning-based Bayesian network with constraint-based algorithm to investigate the influence of COVID-19 pandemic on the currency and derivatives markets of an emerging economy. The output shows that the COVID-19 pandemic has negatively influenced the financial markets as indicated by sharply depreciating currency value around 10 % to 12 % and reducing short-position of futures derivatives around 3 % to 5 % for currency risk hedging. The robustness estimation shows that there have probabilistic distributed between Traded Futures Derivatives Contracts (TFDC), Currency Exchange Rate (CER), and Daily Covid Cases (DCC) and Daily Covid Deaths (DCD). Moreover, the output represents that the futures derivatives market conditionally depends on the currency market volatility given percentage of COVID-19 pandemic. This study may help to policymakers of financial markets in decision-making to control CER volatility that may promote currency market stability to enhance currency market activities and boost confidence of foreign investors in extreme financial crisis circumstances.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic and DNN-based multivariate regression; Currency market; Dynamic emerging financial markets; Futures derivatives market.