Can the new energy vehicles (NEVs) and power battery industry help China to meet the carbon neutrality goal before 2060?

Aqib Zahoor; Yajuan Yu; Hongliang Zhang; Benani Nihed; Sandylove Afrane; Shuan Peng; András Sápi; Chen Jian Lin; Guozhu Mao

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117663

Can the new energy vehicles (NEVs) and power battery industry help China to meet the carbon neutrality goal before 2060?

J Environ Manage. 2023 Jun 15:336:117663. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117663. Epub 2023 Mar 7.

Authors

Aqib Zahoor¹, Yajuan Yu², Hongliang Zhang³, Benani Nihed¹, Sandylove Afrane¹, Shuan Peng¹, András Sápi⁴, Chen Jian Lin⁵, Guozhu Mao¹

Affiliations

¹ School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300350, China; National Industry-Education Platform of Energy Storage, Tianjin University, 300072, China.
² Department of Energy and Environmental Materials, School of Materials Science & Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, 100081, Beijing, China; Beijing Institute of Technology Chongqing Innovation Center, Chongqing, 401120, China. Electronic address: 04575@bit.edu.cn.
³ Department of Energy and Environmental Materials, School of Materials Science & Engineering, Beijing Institute of Technology, 100081, Beijing, China; Beijing Institute of Technology Chongqing Innovation Center, Chongqing, 401120, China.
⁴ University of Szeged, Interdisciplinary Excellence Centre, Department of Applied and Environmental Chemistry, H-6720, Rerrich B'ela T'er 1, Szeged, Hungary.
⁵ Department of Applied Science, School of Science and Technology, Hong Kong Metropolitan University, Good Shepherd Street, Ho Man Tin, Hong Kong SAR, China; State Key Laboratory of Marine Pollution, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR, China.

PMID: 36893537
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117663

Abstract

China is working to boost the manufacture, market share, sales, and use of NEVs to replace fuel vehicles in transportation sector to get carbon reduction target by 2060. In this research, using Simapro life cycle assessment software and Eco-invent database, the market share, carbon footprint, and life cycle analysis of fuel vehicles, NEVs, and batteries were calculated from the last five years to next 25 years, with a focus on the sustainable development. Results indicate globally, China had 293.98 m vehicles and 45.22% worldwide highest market share, followed by Germany with 224.97 m and 42.22% shares. Annually China's NEVs production rate is 50%, and sales account for 35%, while the carbon footprint will account for 5.2 E+07 to 4.89 E+07 kgCO2e by 2021-2035. The power battery production 219.7 GWh reaches 150%-163.4%, whereas carbon footprint values in production and use stage of 1 kWh of LFP 44.0 kgCO₂eq, NCM-146.8 kgCO₂eq, and NCA-370 kgCO₂eq. The single carbon footprint of LFP is smallest at about 5.52 E+09, while NCM is highest at 1.84 E+10. Thus, using NEVs, and LFP batteries will reduce carbon emissions by 56.33%-103.14% and 56.33% or 0.64 Gt to 0.006 Gt by 2060. LCA analysis of NEVs and batteries at manufacturing and using stages quantified the environmental impact ranked from highest to lowest as ADP > AP > GWP > EP > POCP > ODP. ADP(e) and ADP(f) at manufacturing stage account for 14.7%, while other components account for 83.3% during the use stage. Conclusive findings are higher sales and use of NEVs, LFP, and reduction in coal-fired power generation from 70.92% to 50%, and increase in renewable energy sources in electricity generation expectedly will reduce carbon footprint by 31% and environmental impact on acid rain, ozone depletion, and photochemical smog. Finally, to achieve carbon neutrality in China, the NEVs industry must be supported by incentive policies, financial aid, technological improvements, and research and development. This would improve NEV's supply, demand, and environmental impact.

Keywords: Carbon footprint and LCA analysis; Carbon neutrality; China NEVs; LFP and NCM batteries; Sustainable development policies.

MeSH terms

Carbon Dioxide / analysis
Carbon Footprint
Carbon* / analysis
China
Goals*
Motivation

Substances

Carbon
Carbon Dioxide