Brain Metastasis Growth Kinetics: A Novel Prognosticator for Stereotactic Radiotherapy

Abstract

Aims: The rate of size change in brain metastasis may have clinical implications on tumour biology and prognosis for patients who receive stereotactic radiotherapy (SRT). We analysed the prognostic value of brain metastasis size kinetics and propose a model for patients with brain metastases treated with linac-based SRT in predicting overall survival.

Materials and methods: We analysed the patients receiving linac-based SRT between 2010 and 2020. Patient and oncological factors, including the changes in sizes of brain metastasis between the diagnostic and stereotactic magnetic resonance imaging, were collected. The associations between prognostic factors and overall survival were assessed using Cox regression with least absolute selection and shrinkage operator (LASSO) checked by 500 bootstrap replications. Our prognostic score was calculated by evaluating the most statistically significant factors. Patients were grouped and compared according to our proposed score, Score Index for Radiosurgery in Brain Metastases (SIR) and Basic Score for Brain Metastases (BS-BM).

Results: In total, 85 patients were included. We developed the prognostic model based on the most important predictors of overall survival: growth kinetics, i.e. percentage change in brain metastasis size per day between the diagnostic and stereotactic magnetic resonance imaging (hazard ratio per 1% increase, 1.32; 95% confidence interval 1.06-1.65), extracranial oligometastatic diseases (≤5 involvements) (hazard ratio 0.28; 95% confidence interval 0.16-0.52) and the presence of neurological symptoms (hazard ratio 2.99; 95% confidence interval 1.54-5.81). Patients with scores 0, 1, 2 and 3 had a median overall survival of 44.4 (95% confidence interval 9.6-not reached), 20.4 (95% confidence interval 15.6-40.8), 12.0 (95% confidence interval 7.2-22.8) and 2.4 (95% confidence interval 1.2-not reached) years, respectively. The optimism-corrected c-indices for our proposed model, SIR and BS-BM were 0.65, 0.58 and 0.54, respectively.

Conclusions: Brain metastasis growth kinetics is a valuable metric for survival outcomes of SRT. Our model is useful in identifying patients with brain metastasis treated with SRT with different overall survival.

Keywords: Brain metastases; local control; prognostic factors; stereotactic radiotherapy; survival.